Polling Memo: The Shift to Hillary
To: Interested PartiesFrom: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist Date: Thursday, March 20, 2008Re: Polling Memo - The Shift to Hillary
There are some pretty big changes happening out there with the voters. Barack Obama recently declared himself the frontrunner in the race, although there are 10 contests remaining and MI and FL have not yet been decided. But a look at the polls shows that Sen. Obama’s lead nationally with Democrats has been evaporating. The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Hillary leading Sen. Obama among Democrats by 7 points, and the latest Zogby/Reuters poll has Sen. Obama’s lead down from 14 points last month to just 3 points now. This suggests a strong swing in momentum in the race to Hillary since the Texas and Ohio primaries earlier this month.
The more that the voters learn about Barack Obama, the more his ability to beat John McCain is declining compared to Hillary. For a long time we have explained that poll numbers for a candidate who has not yet been vetted or tested are not firm numbers, and we are beginning to see that clearly. Just a month ago, the Obama campaign claimed that the polls showed Barack Obama doing better than Hillary against Sen. McCain. Now such numbers are a lot harder to find.
In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads John McCain by 5 points (Hillary 51 / McCain 46) while Sen. Obama is only 2 points ahead of Sen. McCain (Obama 49 / McCain 47). This is a reversal from February, when Sen. McCain led Hillary by 4 points. The latest CNN poll also shows that Hillary leads Sen. McCain by a bigger margin than Barack Obama.
In several key states, Hillary is a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama against John McCain. For example, the latest Survey USA poll has Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 6 points in Ohio while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 7 points. In Kentucky, Hillary’s margin against Sen. McCain is 26 points better than Barack Obama’s. In Missouri, Sen. Obama lags John McCain by 14 points while Hillary comes within 2 points of Sen. McCain. In Florida, the latest PPP poll shows Barack Obama losing to John McCain by 11 points while Hillary comes within 4 points of Sen. McCain. Last week's University of Central Arkansas poll showed Hillary leading Sen. Sen. McCain by 15 points in that state while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 16 points. And the latest Rasmussen poll showed Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 11 points in New Jersey while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 2 points.
Moreover, 24 percent of Florida Democrats say that if Florida's delegates are not counted at the Democratic convention in August, they are less likely to vote for a Democrat in November, according to the latest St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll. Since Florida is the single largest and most important swing state in the country and nearly 1.8 million Florida Democrats voted in the January primary, Democrats must find a solution to allow Florida's delegates to count if we are to have any hope of winning in November.
And in the crucial state of Pennsylvania - the next Democratic primary battleground and the biggest state which has not yet voted - the latest Quinnipiac poll shows Hillary doubling her Democratic primary lead over Barack Obama from 6 points to 12 points. In Pennsylvania, Hillary improved among men, maintained her 24 point advantage among women, and improved among younger, older, more educated and less educated voters. She leads in every region across the state (NE, SE, NW, SW, Central, Alleghany) with the exception of Philadelphia.
Ultimately, this Democratic nominating process is meant to select the candidate who will: a) be the best president - the best commander-in-chief, steward of the economy, and exercise leadership; b) defeat John McCain; and c) promote and defend core Democratic principles such as universal health care. On all three fronts, Hillary is the best choice for the Democratic Party.
Hillary is the runaway leader on most qualified to be commander-in-chief. In the Ohio exit poll, 60 percent of Democratic primary voters said Hillary was most qualified to be commander-in-chief, compared with 37 percent for Barack Obama. In Texas, she led by 16 points, and in most other states, she led by 10 points or more. She also won among those who said the economy was the most important issue - by 12 points in Ohio, for example. And in the latest CNN poll, more voters say Hillary would do a good job on the economy than Barack Obama or John McCain. Finally, in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads Barack Obama on strong and decisive leadership, managing the government effectively and having a clear plan for solving the country’s problems.
I read the nonsense online and think, "Am I the only one raised in a religious family?" My family's Catholic. I have to wonder if anyone in Panhandle Media was raised in a religious family because they're either (a) still dismissing that Jeremiah Wright, Bambi's pastor, damned the United States or (b) they're trying to smear Hillary for being part of a Bible study group.
A Bible study group! Oh, that's so shocking!
How stupid is Panhandle Media? There's nothing shocking about Hillary belonging to a Bible study group. There's no shame there. You really grasp that it's not just that Panhandle Media doesn't believe in God, it's that they really, really hate people who do. They think they're so much better and so much smarter, so 'rationale' because they don't believe in God.
I think it's really sad that there are so many in Panhandle Media who don't believe because that's why they miss the key points over and over again. There are apparently more non-believers in Panhandle Media than believers which goes to the fact that they aren't representative of the country they supposedly want to reach.
And when they say a pastor giving a sermon where he damns the United States of America is no big deal, they also seem to suggest that they were merely posing after 9-11 when they were all flaunting their patroitism.
Don't claim patriotism and also not be offended when someone of the cloth damns the United States. It doesn't work that way.
I was raised Catholic and that translates today as I go to Midnight Mass each Christmas. I'm not a Bible thumper. I'm not devout. But I took offense to Wright's remarks and if I found it offensive you better be sure that Americans who go to church every Sunday found it even more offensive.
And I didn't see the clips. I saw one thing, where Wright damned the United States. That's all I needed to see to be offended. Reading up on it, I see he's also used his pulpit to preach the lies that AIDS is a White plot. That's offensive.
The man is an idiot, a hateful idiot. And that's Barack Obama's 'mentor'? That's the man he lets 'train' him for 20 years? Let's remember Barack wasn't raised in a religion. Wright is the one who brought him to the church. So all the sudden he hears Wright and decides to become a church member? Considering the hate Wright was spewing, that's really offensive and frightening.
People in Panhandle Media need to quit kidding themselves that this is going away. It is never going away. If he wasn't running for the presidency but was running for re-election to the Senate, he could be defeated by a Democratic or Republican opponent. We don't expect our senators to keep company with people who damn the United States. There are standards.
Apparently the non-belivers in Panhandle Media have spent the last decade kidding themselves that only conservatives are religious. They've tossed a few crumbs out to Jim Wallis (he's Catholic but not any kind of Catholic I would support) but they have no grasp of how important religion is to many Americans. They're out of touch. And they've missed how this really does damage their poster boy Barack Obama.
If I'm doing this right tonight, this is Jesse Hamilton.